year 2000

Don J. S. Adams ( (no email) )
Sat, 26 Sep 1998 08:57:12 -0500

Y2K Embedded Chip
Trouble Could Make Much
Software Programming Seem Moot
By Srikumar S. Rao
Professor Of Marketing
NY Long Island University
From www.forbes.com
From Frank Altomonte <FAltomon@jefco.com>
9-25-98


Your company is presumably up to speed on the software
side of the
year 2000 problem. But have you pondered the hardware
side?
We're talking about embedded controllers, the
special-purpose
microprocessors that turn valves on and off, regulate
furnaces and air
conditioners, operate pacemakers and car engines and
control the
nation's electric grid. Warns G.K. Jayaram, chairman of
Transformation Systems, a Princeton, N.J. information
technology
consulting firm: "Come 2000 there will be rolling
blackouts across
much of the U.S."

To a degree that surprises nonspecialists, embedded
systems
routinely have recourse to time stamps. The chip may
contain a rule
like this: If generator 23 hasn't been serviced for six
months, shut it
down and import electricity from the neighboring state.

"In tests, several utilities have suffered system
crashes as the date
rolls over to 01/01/2000," says Jayaram. "Our
electricity transmission
network is so highly interconnected that a failure in
one sector can
easily cascade to others thousands of miles away."

Just finding all your embedded systems is a challenge.
They are
under the ocean in drilling rigs and nuclear submarines,
above the
earth in satellites and everywhere in between. Many are
encased in
steel, buried in concrete or otherwise inaccessible.
They program
your VCR, inscribe the date on your home video and run
factories,
refineries and office buildings. There are more than 25
billion of
these chips, says David Hall, embedded-systems
consultant for
Oakbrook, Ill.-based Cara Corp., a software consulting
firm. "In a
large plant you have buckets of just two or three
hundred lines of
code, but they are in thousands of locations," explains
John Jenkins,
president of Tava Technologies, Inc., an information
technology
company in Englewood, Colo. "Factory systems are
networked, so
one component failure could well bring the whole
operation down.
Many of the vendors of these old chips are no longer in
business,
and the documentation for them, if it ever existed, has
long since
been lost."

"Embedded-chip snafus can show up in a mind-boggling
variety of
settings," says Timothy Broadley, chief engineer at
Bethesda,
Md.-based Computer Technology Associates. One of CTA's
clients
is a government-owned facility that stores 14 tons of
plutonium and
other toxic waste. Some of the plutonium is in the form
of dust
trapped in pipes and crevices in plant buildings. Dozens
of fans
maintain low pressure in the buildings, so that there is
no radioactive
leak. A programmable line controller monitors the fans
and has a
millennium bug problem. "It is possible that the fans
could shut down
and permit a leak," says Broadley. The facility is 16
miles from a
city.

Many maximum security prisons have electronic door
locks. "They
are designed to fail in the 'open' position," explains
Broadley, "so
humans don't get trapped if, say, there is a fire." When
2000 rolls
around, will some of our most dangerous felons be
unexpectedly
freed? Maybe.

"Most embedded systems have a look-ahead time of less
than one
month, so the failures won't happen for a while," says
Cara's Hall.
"There has simply not been enough testing to comment
intelligently
on what will happen. What could happen, though, is
plenty scary."

Consultants, to be sure, have an ax to grind when they
say you
should have some consulting work done. Even allowing for
that,
there seems to be room for intelligent worry. If you own
an
explosives factory, check out the controller on the
ventilation fan.

Srikumar S. Rao is Louis and Johanna Vorzimer Professor
of
Marketing at the C.W. Post campus of New York's Long
Island
University. 

-- I dread success. To havesucceeded is to have finishedone's business on earth, likethe male spider, who is killedby the female the moment he hassucceeded in his courtship.

I like a state of continualbecoming, with a goal in frontand not behind.

-- George Bernard Shaw

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